Why does November always get the benefit of the doubt? Is it a genuine market edge, or just a calendar-based placebo traders use when fundamentals go quiet?
The stage is set: inflation is finally cooling toward central-bank targets (US core PCE was ~2.1% in April), and major central banks are talking cuts. The Fed held rates in June 2025 but still pencilled in two quarter-point cuts this year.
The week was dominated by political uncertainty and mixed data across economies. In the US, a partial government shutdown dragged on into its third week, delaying many economic releases. Lawmakers hinted at possible resolution, but no breakthrough emerged before the weekend.
Gold’s price just plunged sharply over Monday-Tuesday, erasing the past week’s gains and stirring up real volatility. The drop was roughly 6% over those two sessions – the biggest one-day fall in over a decade – and it came with no obvious news trigger.
The oil price surge during early 2025 has made energy costs a primary factor behind inflation growth. The ongoing high US household inflation expectations have led investors to use oil as their inflation protection strategy. The oil market now leads the way in determining inflation rates and dollar value and market sentiment.
