With long-delayed data finally released post-shutdown, investors welcomed signs of easing inflation, core PCE rose just +0.3% in September. Early-December sentiment surveys ticked up, but labor market softness lingered. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bps at the December 9-10 meeting. Optimism remains fragile, but most traders now anticipate a third consecutive cut as the Fed aims to cushion a slowing economy.
Markets ended the final week of November on firmer footing as investors priced in a growing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting. Softer US data following the post-shutdown backlog and easing Treasury yields helped shift sentiment toward a more dovish outlook.
Last week’s backdrop was shaped by the end of the 43-day US government shutdown and cautious tone from central banks. The funding extension cleared a key uncertainty but created a backlog of economic data, with the October CPI report cancelled.
The biggest story this week was the end of the US government shutdown. Congress approved a continuing funding resolution late Wednesday, allowing federal agencies to reopen and workers to be paid back wages.
Markets grappled with mixed economic signals and missing data last week as an ongoing US government shutdown delayed key reports. Investors saw conflicting readings on the labour market – private payrolls rebounded by +42,000 in October according to ADP, but a separate survey showed layoffs surging to 153,000, the highest monthly total since 2003.
