The week was dominated by political uncertainty and mixed data across economies. In the US, a partial government shutdown dragged on into its third week, delaying many economic releases. Lawmakers hinted at possible resolution, but no breakthrough emerged before the weekend.
US markets opened the week in limbo as the government shutdown entered its third week, freezing major data releases. Fed officials stepped into the void, reinforcing a gradual easing bias. Core inflation remains sticky: US core PCE inflation ran about 2.9% year-on-year in August. With the shutdown delaying US CPI (now shifted to late October) markets clung to Fed signals.
Markets entered October balancing two competing forces – a Federal Reserve that sounded increasingly open to further easing, and a sudden revival of trade tensions between the world’s largest economies.
Markets began Q4 steady despite the US government shutdown on 1 October, which halted key data releases including the September jobs report. Investors largely viewed it as temporary and focused on the Fed’s next steps.
Markets spent most of last week stuck between two narratives: inflation that remains stubbornly high and a Fed that finally made its first cut since late 2024. August’s PCE numbers came in as expected with core prices up 0.3% on the month, 2.7% YoY. Not exactly encouraging, but not worse than feared either. It was just enough to calm nerves after the cut, though investors were left second-guessing whether this was the start of an easing cycle or simply a cautious adjustment.
